Projected Gain/Loss of Congressional Seats After 2020 Census

"davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com" (davesaddiction) 11/19/2019 at 15:28 • Filed to: None

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Dang, Texas... y u take all our peeps?

Congrats to Montana, for getting out of the Just One Club.

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For Sweden > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/19/2019 at 15:37

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When Highlander makes it to Congress, I want a used Ram Cummins truck

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/19/2019 at 15:40

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It’d be kind of funny if Montana gained a seat then by some miracle Puerto Rico becomes a state and Montana gets put back in the solo club.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 11/19/2019 at 15:43

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Yeah, that’d be pretty hilarious.

I wonder what would have to happen for Puerto Rico and DC to become states. Honestly if we weren’t at a nice, round 50 states (and 100 senators), it probably would’ve happened already.

Also, everyone always forgets Guam.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/19/2019 at 15:51

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Funny that CA residents always crow about “oh, we are growing so fast, everybody wants to come here” when the truth is “the middle class is getting the fuck out of Dodge...” and the net decrease in legal resident-citizens will mean the loss of a seat.

I guess when you have over 50 maybe you don’t notice one, but it’s still “off message” here in the Golden State.

Montalvo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/19/2019 at 15:53

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Honestly? Way too much. Its hard to get enough votes within PR itself to even approach statehood. I am also pretty certain that getting to state level would mean it would need to be more self sufficient which is already a problem . PR is a lovely island but there is a reason why a lot of people come to the mainland. Other than a few select industries there isn’t a whole lot going on and the storms keep applying the brakes to any big progress.

Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/19/2019 at 15:53

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I still dont comprehend why the cap on house seats is so low. It needs to be at least doubled for this map to make any sense.

MonkeePuzzle > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/19/2019 at 15:58

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sounds about right

*gestures wildly in the general direction of my every increasing daily commute*

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/19/2019 at 15:59

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Honestly, every American territory should be a state to make it a nice sounding 55 states.

I’m on the fence about DC, it was left as not a state for a reason (so that state would not have oversized influence over the federal government).

For the same reason my radical proposal that has no chance in hell of ever happening is to split up Texas and California into smaller states so they too don’t have such an oversized influence on the federal government.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 11/19/2019 at 16:00

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Not enough chairs, I guess? Same as who gets invited to Thanksgiving dinner.

Thomas Donohue > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 11/19/2019 at 16:00

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No matter what they do, t hey’ll still have two senate seats which are way more powerful.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/19/2019 at 16:02

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Census counts everyone, not just citizens.

Are congressional seats based on total count, or just the citizenry?

Most people can put up with crazy high taxes and out of control housing costs for only so long.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 11/19/2019 at 16:05

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Sounds like a plan.

Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/19/2019 at 16:05

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I think that the map looks spot on for what is happening in California. You can see Oregon, Colorado, and Texas all gaining people while California is losing them. That would definitely be attributable to people moving to Portland, Denver, and Austin. All places that are currently just as liberal (and probably trending more that way) and have relatively mild weather but are WAYYYYY cheaper (for now) than LA or SF.

And then the northeast/midwest losing people while florida gains them is another common trend. Same deal on the cheapness but definitely not on the liberal front. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MonkeePuzzle 11/19/2019 at 16:09

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LOL

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Montalvo 11/19/2019 at 16:11

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I think there is enough support within Puerto Rico to get a vote supporting statehood. And yea, it needs some help building industry again. Honestly Puerto Rico either needs to become a state or become an independent country. I think the current status as a territory has a lot to do with many of the issues since they have very little control over the laws that they must abide by.

punkgoose17 > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 11/19/2019 at 16:20

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Agreed it needs to be increased by some amount.

Chariotoflove > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 11/19/2019 at 16:25

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Texas population centers are and have been growing for a long time, not just Austin, but Dallas, Houston, and their suburbs too.

Stapleface-Now Hyphenated! > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/19/2019 at 16:31

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Finally Jersey isn’t losing any seats. We lost one in the 2010 Census. I know it’s all about population growth, but small states get boned on the Census. There’s nowhere else for people to go in this state* so they lost a seat

*Not including extreme South Jersey where you it's a whole different world

Future next gen S2000 owner > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 11/19/2019 at 16:49

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There are 435 house reps. Doesn’t seem that low.

Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) > Future next gen S2000 owner 11/19/2019 at 16:56

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I knew I had read about the problem before but I figured I would look it up to back up my opinion with numbers.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/402234-to-make-the-house-of-representatives-work-again-make-it-bigger

In terms of # of people per representative, we are ranked 192/193 countries! Something seems wrong with that.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 11/19/2019 at 17:03

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Not all the exodus are liberals, by the way. Idaho and Utah have seen a huge influx of CA refugees... with a degree of resentment since the Californios don’t have the good sense to change their license plates.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-11-10/go-back-to-california-wave-of-newcomers-fuels-backlash-in-boise

Why you’d pay $350 a year to renew your CA plates when you can simply get an Idaho plate for $60 a year is beyond my comprehension.

Utah and Idaho continue to get redder, as generally the more GOP-y Californios go there.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/19/2019 at 17:06

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Hence my use of the word “resident” as well as citizen.

I guess the distinction is being litigated, but with CA already having such an outsize number of seats I’m not sure why it’s “fair” for them to pad their numbers with all the people here illegally.  30% of the people in My Fair County aren’t here with documents to back it up.

ttyymmnn > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/19/2019 at 17:09

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A shitload of people are moving to TX these days. I heard that there re 85 more cars on the roads in Austin ev ery day . It’s a combination of good jobs, low taxes, lowish rents. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/19/2019 at 17:10

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Who is included in the apportionment population counts?

The apportionment calculation is based upon the total resident population (citizens and non-citizens) of the 50 states. In the 2010 Census, the apportionment population also includes U.S. Armed Forces personnel and federal civilian employees stationed outside the United States (and their dependents living with them) that can be allocated, based on administrative records, back to a home state. This is the same procedure used in 2000.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > Chariotoflove 11/19/2019 at 17:13

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You raise a good point.... In fact the #1 Destination for departing Californios isn’t actually Arizona or Nevada (hard as that is to believe, as you drive around those states, frankly) but TEXAS. Top destination for the emigrants— and it’s not even close.

Seattle, Portland, SLC and Boise complain a lot about the invasion, but Texas seems big enough to just take all comers.  And the growing economy there shows it.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > ttyymmnn 11/19/2019 at 17:13

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How they get those flying taxis up and working for y’all soon.

Austin is cheap only when compared to San Francisco.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 11/19/2019 at 17:34

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I have been advocating for the splitting of California for a very long time. It’s just too big to govern and too different between the regions. SoCal and the Bay Area are radically different, and they’re completely disconnected from the southern half of the CV, which might as well be adjacent to Oklahoma. The far north is a completely separate place from the other three (more like 5-6), too. The concept ual state of Jefferson m akes far more sense than the contiguous state of California...

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 11/19/2019 at 17:42

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I’d rather correct the imbalance the other way: The number of senators per state should be increased to abs(house_seats/state_count).

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/19/2019 at 17:47

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I was there for 3 prior censuses, but have moved out of the state since the last one... This will be my first time being counted outside California. Living there is simply not sustainable unless you have essentially permanent cheap housing,  a high-paying job, and preferably some way to avoid taxes.

Chariotoflove > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/19/2019 at 18:06

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When Texas Instruments was growing up in the 80s and 90s, Dallas took a huge influx of professionals. It’s still going on, but with companies like Toyota in Plano. Favorable tax rates, good education (not the Dallas ISD so much, but the surrounding ISDs yes), and very low cost of living and housing are keeping growth happening with  DINKs and young families.

ttyymmnn > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/19/2019 at 18:10

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Which is why all those damned CA hippies are coming to Austin.

Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/19/2019 at 18:20

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I dont blame them though, Utah and Idaho are some of the prettiest areas of the whole country!

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/19/2019 at 19:00

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It’s not much when every expense you have has dropped by 2/3. Most states require you to get new plates quickly, too.

The Richey dude in this article advocates for one of the main things driving young Californians out of California. Unless you’re rich and/or someone in your family was smart enough to set up a couple corporations to maintain ownership of property, not only will housing prices kill you, but so will property taxes (although I now live in another place with a similar problem of rapidly rising housing prices and high taxes, because everyone suffers you get tax revolt votes like our latest one and wages are higher because otherwise nobody would work here). Living outside California and moving there was a real shock. I love California, but you need a lot of money to establish even a rental existence there, which is something that is all-but out of reach for people from most inland states... I burned 6 months of savings in 5 weeks at the cheapest motel I could find coming from where my parents lived back to California before I was able to land a rental property that cost a mere half of my income there in California . All m y coworkers were 50+ and had owned homes since they were in their 20s; they paid practically nothing to live there, while I paid probably ten times their housing expenses just to rent a place... That, combined with similar disconnects between voters and reality, is what drives anyone under about 60 today out of California (and drove the younger people deep into the suburbs decades ago) .

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > Eric @ opposite-lock.com 11/19/2019 at 19:23

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I always say that the best way to move to CA in 2020 will be to build Doc Brown’s time machine, fly back to 1985 and buy the first house with the first for sale sign you see.

If you can’t do that?  You’re in a tough spot.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > Chariotoflove 11/19/2019 at 19:25

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The Telecomm boom in the 90s and 00s also drove a lot of growth in Plano and surrounding areas.  I almost see DFW as recession-proof by now-- the economy is so diverse, with so many poles in the tent to keep it up.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > Eric @ opposite-lock.com 11/19/2019 at 19:28

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The weird thing about “the plate story” is that this guy basically kept his CA for plates for like 5+ years, even though he was in ID full-time... so he had to deal with CARB and “Smog Check” every two years anyway. Why put up with that hassle to pay so much more for your registration? Doesn’t make any sense to me.

Ada County in Idaho (where BSU is) does have Smog Testing, but it’s like a $20 fee... not the $100+ in CA.

facw > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 11/19/2019 at 20:42

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The Apportionment Amendment is still pending: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Apportionment_Amendment

Just 27 more states need to ratify it in order to get it added to the Constitution. If passed it would require one representative for every 50,000 people, which would be an order of magnitude increase.  

DipodomysDeserti > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/19/2019 at 20:52

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I’ve never heard Californians say that. They’ve been moving to AZ since I can remember. They make their money in CA then retire to a state with low taxes where they vote to defund schools in order to lower taxes  since they don’t have kids in school anymore.

DipodomysDeserti > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/19/2019 at 20:54

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I didn’t think was possible for Utah or Idaho to get any redder. Idaho has been home to the Aryan Nation for a while now.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > DipodomysDeserti 11/19/2019 at 20:57

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Repeal Prop 13 and your problems are over. Really.

Of course, California will never fix their tax system, so I guess you are stuck paying the tab.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > DipodomysDeserti 11/19/2019 at 20:58

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heh.  Where do you buy your stereotypes?  The 1980s?  Randy Weaver and those guys have long since moved on.  Up there it’s mostly golf course estates and espresso bars now.

DipodomysDeserti > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/19/2019 at 21:11

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1980s? I think they were in Spokane then. Their Idaho compound wasn’t sued into oblivion by the SPLC until 2001. I travel and camp all over California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Utah and Arizona on a semi regular basis. Idaho has always been very conservative, hence the Aryan Brotherhood setting up shop there. If anything the GOPer Californios have made it less conservative.

And what makes you think ultra conservatives don’t like golf and espresso? Been to Italy lately?

DipodomysDeserti > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/19/2019 at 21:17

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I would think repealing prop 13 in CA would cause more boomer Californios to move to AZ, thus increasing my problem. AZ boomers tried a Prop 13 and it failed to make it to the ballot.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > DipodomysDeserti 11/19/2019 at 21:37

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Nice. Except I’ve had a house up there (north and south Idaho) for many, many years. Aryan Nations, Hayden Lake, Ruby Ridge... all have cleared out. The counties up north made a real point of making it unpleasant for them to stay.

As for the California conservatives moving to Idaho? I used to naively think that too— but you forget what a “self-sorting” problem it is. Largely (90% is one estimate of the right-of-center content ) it’s a pretty religious, socially conservative crowd moving to Idaho and actually are moving the state further to the right. The last time Idaho voted for a Dem for President is 1964. Every election cycle (time averaged) the GOP plurality is larger and larger.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 11/19/2019 at 21:50

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it was also left not a state with a population of 2800. A bit of unplanned growth to the 700k of today.

they should have banned folks from living inside the city 230 years ago. 

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/19/2019 at 22:19

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Seriously. As I look at the exact numbers, I could probably swing an inner eastern suburb of Los Angeles if I could somehow move my livelihood there, but we’d have to massively downgrade on housing and live in a place built no later than about 1960. Still, if the regime wasn’t so insane, it’s kind of tempting. I really miss the state, though I love the weather here. The people are so much friendlier and there’s so much more to do...

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/19/2019 at 22:20

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If it was a new car, he didn’t need to deal with smog checks. He probably registered there when he first got a renewal notice that required a smog check.

Also, unless smog checks got a lot more expensive after I left, they were always like $40 and only every other year. Annoying, yes, but it was only like 30 min hanging out at the smog check place one random day every other year. It was a lot less annoying than Jury Duty...

DipodomysDeserti > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/19/2019 at 22:45

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I think it’s just a perspective thing. I’m an AZ native (a conservative state) and have always viewed Idaho as even more conservative. Even we voted for Clinton.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > Eric @ opposite-lock.com 11/20/2019 at 00:36

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There’s some nice real estate out “in the Inland Empire”, but seriously you can be 2-3-4 hours from the coast, the temps are almost as hot as Arizona or Las Vegas in the summer... and the traffic and taxes are just as bad.  If my choice is Riverside or Tempe?  I’m going Tempe.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > Eric @ opposite-lock.com 11/20/2019 at 00:37

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I did my son’s car recently...  $90 to drive the car through the roll-up door, plus fees and charges on top of that.  

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > DipodomysDeserti 11/20/2019 at 00:40

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Oh, there’s an LDS streak from Nogales to Missoula... tends to make average values and politics a bit more “conservative”. But, I think Utah and Idaho have been the most reliably GOP states (with the possible addition of Wyoming in that trio) for 50 years by now. Although Goldwater was from Phoenix— the last GOP candidate that convinced Idaho and Utah to vote Dem.

DipodomysDeserti > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/20/2019 at 01:45

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That LDS streak extends down into Sonora...

Goldwater would be considered a centrist Democrat by today’s standards.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 11/20/2019 at 08:44

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True...maybe carve out a chunk of land that includes the capitol buildings, national mall, and other government buildings to keep as-is and don’t allow residential buildings in that area.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/20/2019 at 16:32

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Same here. There’s no reason to endure a commute from deep in the IE or High Desert (Lancaster and Victorville regions) just to stay in California. Driving forever and dealing with the heat just to still deal with the traffic and state taxes makes no sense. I don’t understand why people do 4+ hours of commuting a day just to be able to marginally live in the state.

Although I wouldn’t go to AZ, and especially not the Phoenix metro ( worst city in the western US, barely beating out Las Vegas, IMHO, since Vegas at least has some okay-ish suburbs ). The only good cities in AZ are Tucson (HOT!) and the Flagstaff-Sedona region, then just the mountain areas that are mostly outside cities. But you still have to deal with the freakish AZ regime, which is possibly worse than the CA regime in many ways (just not quite as expensive).

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/20/2019 at 16:33

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I did leave almost 7 years ago, so maybe it has gone up since I was there. Or I just lived somewhere it was cheap...